Health Protection Research Units (HPRUs) are funded by the and undertake high quality research that enhances the ability of the to protect the public’s health and minimise the health impact of emergencies. HPRUs focus on collaboration and knowledge sharing, and play a pivotal role in maintaining and growing UKHSA’s scientific expertise and future workforce. The multidisciplinary centres of excellence also deliver responsive research to tackle emerging or potential public health emergencies.
The NIHR HPRU in Health & Analytics Modelling is one of 13 HPRUs across England, part of an £80 million investment by the NIHR to protect the health of the nation. Our HPRU is a partnership between UKHSA and the °®ÍþÄÌapp of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, in collaboration with Imperial College London.
The HPRU in Health & Analytics Modelling covers a wide spectrum of thematic areas, with many allied and overlapping researchers contributing their time in-kind to help it achieve its objectives. Our Directors are:
- John Edmunds (LSHTM)
- Peter White (UKHSA)
- Neil Ferguson (Imperial)
- Who we are
Name Institution Role Primary theme ICL Unit Director All themes UKHSA Deputy Director, Theme Lead and Academic Career Development Lead Changing disease burden: drivers and intervention strategies Deborah Farmer ICL HPRU Manager All themes ICL Theme Co-Lead Capacity-building, dissemination, translation, and tools ICL Theme Co-Lead Analysis, forecasting and response to outbreaks and acute health-system pressures Andre Charlett UKHSA Theme Co-Lead Analysis, forecasting and response to outbreaks and acute health-system pressures ICL Theme Lead Capacity-building, dissemination, translation, and tools Raquel Duarte-Davidson UKHSA Theme Co-Lead Changing disease burden: drivers and intervention strategies John Edmunds LSHTM Theme Co-Lead Capacity-building, dissemination, translation, and tools Roz Eggo LSHTM Theme Co-Lead Changing disease burden: drivers and intervention strategies ICL Theme Co-Lead Changing disease burden: drivers and intervention strategies Mark Jit LSHTM Unit Co-Director, Theme Lead Behavioural and economic drivers of disease transmission and intervention policy effectiveness Adam Kucharski LSHTM Theme Lead Analysis, forecasting and response to outbreaks and acute health-system pressures ICL Theme Co-Lead Behavioural and economic drivers of disease transmission and intervention policy effectiveness Gareth Hughes UKHSA Theme Co-Lead Capacity-building, dissemination, translation, and tools Julie Robotham UKHSA Theme Co-Lead Behavioural and economic drivers of disease transmission and intervention policy effectiveness UKHSA Theme Co-Lead Behavioural and economic drivers of disease transmission and intervention policy effectiveness
Our analytical research priorities range across a wide range of disease areas, with many cross-cutting methodologies and challenges; integration and analysis of diverse surveillance data; statistical methods for estimating unknown model parameters; genetic analysis of whole genome sequence data; and the development of simulation tools.
The HPRU in Health & Analytics Modelling facilitates translation of its research into sustained gains in UKHSA’s capacity to collect, analyse, model and interpret diverse datasets by developing robust easy-to-use computer software for use by non-modellers and via a comprehensive training and capacity building programme.
- Health equity and inclusion
Infectious disease outbreaks cause substantial burden in communities and healthcare settings. More generally, unpredicted surges in healthcare demand (due to both infectious and non-infectious causes) require allocating expensive spare capacity, risk compromising patient care and impose extreme pressures on the NHS. This theme will elucidate key drivers of outbreak spread and healthcare demand surges, integrating these insights into forecasting and modelling/evaluation of mitigation approaches. By combining mathematical and statistical approaches with novel data sources, we will characterise the relative contributions of vaccination coverage, prior infections, outbreak response, and social behaviour to outbreak frequency and dynamics. We will also estimate the contribution of both infections and non-infectious causes (e.g. temperature fluctuations, exacerbated by climate change) to pressures on health care systems and model how these systems can be optimised. With Theme 3 we will estimate the cost of demand surges and mitigation measures. This will deliver more accurate, timely, and relevant public health forecasting.
- Health forecasting
The UK is experiencing long-term changes in the burden of both infectious and non-communicable disease, with the ageing population (and consequent increased frequency of co-morbidities) and environmental change being key drivers. This theme will develop methods to synthesise evidence from empirical studies, surveillance, and electronic health records (EHRs), using big data to better-understand changes in the aetiology and epidemiology of disease – including interactions between environment, climate, chronic and infectious disease. It will elucidate drivers of disease trends, and design and assess cost-effectiveness of interventions to improve health and reduce inequalities in a changing world.
- Pandemic preparedness
This theme's objectives are to investigate the implications of methodological choices in economic evaluations of public health interventions; conduct a systematic assessment to understand the behavioural data requirements of health protection modelling; explore modelling and health economic analyses to respond to UKHSA's needs during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; analyse data from the contact-patterns survey for use in transmission models; explore changes since the previous POLYMOD study; explore public health interventions (e.g. COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions, antibiotic use) which are beneficial in some groups but detrimental in others, and investigate vaccine hesitancy; conduct a large-scale, UK population-based survey of social mixing patterns relevant to infectious disease spread; develop models around public values, predictors and economic impacts of behaviour change; develop methods and pilot studies for collecting social contact data from target groups, including those in closed settings (e.g. hospitals, nursing homes); link contact-pattern data with Theme 1 to better-understand dynamics of outbreaks, and behavioural surveys to understand behavioural change drivers during outbreaks.
The °®ÍþÄÌapp of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has been awarded £5.5 million by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) for continued support of the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Health Analytics & Modelling (HAM), in collaboration with the UK Health Security Agency and Imperial College London.
Professor Louise Kenny, Executive Pro-Vice-Chancellor for the Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, said: “We are delighted to have received funding to support the continuation of the HPRU in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections. The work of this unit, which draws on significant strengths from the across the University of Liverpool and our national and international partners, was critical in our response to the COVID-19 pandemic and we look forward to continuing our world-leading work in health protection.â€
A total of 13 new HPRUs were announced recently by NIHR, as part of a £80 million research investment to keep the public safe from current and emerging public health threats. The HPRUs, which are all partnerships between top universities and UKHSA, will launch in April 2025 and run for five years.
Patient and public involvement and engagement, often abbreviated to PPIE, is all about including public contributors throughout the research cycle in a meaningful way. Public contributors are not study participants, but people who provide input and feedback based on their lived experience in the condition or status that a researcher is investigating. The word 'public' can refer to patients, potential patients, carers and people who use health and social care services, members of organisations that represent people who use services as well as members of the public.